Will Apple and AT&T reinvent Cellular?

The current paradigm in American cellular seems to be to hook a customer on a service plan with a subsidized phone, and then profit by selling extras - minutes, text messages, ring tones, music, &c. AT&T will soon be offering cellular service with an "unlimited" data plan, and an unsubsidized iPhone. Not subsidizing the phone means AT&T makes a bigger profit from the service plan, without the need to sell extras.

There's no need for a bewildering array of service plans with complex rules and gimmicks if the basic plan is profitable. If the basic plan is profitable, then the way to increase profits is to increase market share. The way to increase market share is to offer a killer plan. The key to profiting from the killer plan is the unsubsidized phone. The key to the unsubsidized phone is a killer feature set. Enter the iPhone.

Verizon makes a good point. A service plan can only be as good as the service - coverage, reliability, customer support, &c. Both Apple and AT&T know how to do those. They just have to execute.

I'm not going to predict a price for this plan, as I don't know what the "sweet spot" is. I do know that most prognosticators were wrong - and Apple was right - about "sweet spot" pricing for the iPod and iTunes. That's why I'm betting on another solid hit with the iPhone. I expect Apple and AT&T to reinvent Cellular.

Wait! There's more....

Microsoft Awarded Patent for the Mac OS?

Alexander Wolfe warns Apple Beware: Microsoft Awarded Web Phone Patent, U.S. Patent 7,225,409, Graphical User Interface For A Screen Telephone". He says it sounds iPhone like to him, and suggests Steve Jobs should use his iPhone to call his lawyer. Alexander thinks Microsoft's patent is not "just for a phone, but for the underlying software". I guess the other Alexander (Bell) should be worried, too. Apple claims that the "underlying software" in the iPhone is the Mac OS. The "underlying software" in the Mac OS is UNIX. Does this mean that Microsoft has patented UNIX?

I'm no lawyer, so don't call me.

My not-a-lawyer interpretation differs from Alexander's reading. I agree with Alexander that "the patent application shows some very broad claims". I read it as a patent for software to implement a GUI web phone on any computer, not neccesarily a cellphone, or a mobile device. While I didn't spend hours analyzing the patent, my quick scan picked up that the patent specifically references the CIDCO iPhone. Check out the picture of the CIDCO iPhone at G4TV. It looks like a screen phone to me. Maybe Alexander should be warning CIDCO instead of Apple. Nah, that article was written in 1998, before Microsoft applied for their patent.

Customizing the customizable

Microsoft's patented software includes a customizable visual user interface, and an API for customizing the customizable visual user interface. The phrase "customizing the customizable" appears nine times. NO WONDER Apple is reluctant to let third party applications on the iPhone. Microsoft has a patent on that. Right! Actually, it sounds more like Microsoft just patented skins. Would you believe portals? HTML? Computer programming?

Steve Jobs, don't bother your lawyer. Use your iPhone to play with Google Maps!

Secret Leopard Features.

Blogging about the Secret Features to appear in Mac OS Leopard seems to be the rage these days, as less than two weeks remain before all will be revealed at Apple's World Wide Developer's Conference (WWDC). Right. Some blogs claim inside sources; most read like wishful thinking.

I can do that.

1. Facial Recognition logon security. A new Macintosh Computer (Mac) comes equipped with an iSight camera and Photo Booth software. Mac OS X Leopard invites a user to use the camera to take a self portrait for the picture attached to the user Account. With Facial Recognition software, Leopard could compare the face of the person logging into the computer against the Account Picture if configured to do so. This optional security step would be in addition to a strong password. Leopard could also be configured to make this comparison whenever a password is required.
2. iPod Development Kit. The consensus of the iPhone rumormongers is that an iPhone Development Kit will be introduced at Apple's WWDC. Imagine if this SDK could also be used to develop for the iPod.
   

Look for more speculations to come in days ahead.

I wanted to call this blog ...

... Experimental. That name was taken (of course). A rose by any other name still smells.

I want to get a handle on the blogging phenomena, and figured the best way is to try it. These are my trials.

I've read a number of tech blogs that report rumor as fact, citing unnamed reliable inside sources. I'm calling this blog speculational to let you know up front that I am my only source.

Barry Fitzgerald told me that the difference between Philosophy and Science is that Philosophy is based on reasoning while Science is based on the Method. Works for me. I use Philosophy to evaluate the blogs I read when proven facts are lacking (In college, I majored in Engineering, and minored in Philosophy. Barry Fitzgerald is a Professor of Philosophy and throws the best Christmas parties).