Experimental Status Report

I started this blog one month ago, as a Social Experiment. While I am not ready to draw any conclusions, I do have a few interesting statistics to report.

In the past month I have received 16 emails in the inbox of my associated gmail account, 519 emails that gmail decided were spam, and 8 emails that gmail decided were trash. The 8 trash emails were actually spam. I don't know how or why they went to the trash - not that I care. Of the 519 spam emails, 518 were spam and 1 was a feedback notice from Gene Steinberg's Mac Nightowl. Two of the 16 emails in my inbox were also from Gene Steinberg's Mac Nightowl, and arrived the day after the one classified as spam.

This is an email account that I only use when commenting on other blogs, and all the emails in my inbox are either activation verification requests, or feedback notices.

To mark the start of month two of this Social Experiment, I have added a new feature - Digg. I used Wayne's Add Digg to BLogger script after changing the background color from black to white. Visit his website and you'll see why I had to do that. The day isn't even over, and I got two diggs. Auspicious!

Anybody care to comment?

Some REAL good reasons not to buy an iPhone tomorrow.

Reading Confessions of a Mac Convert by Rich Duprey @ The Motley Fool triggered the following thoughts. Purely Speculational of course. Rich explains that he bought an iMac for one daughter who will be going to college soon, and that her sister wants a Mac laptop. He ends the article wondering whether he can get volume discounts.

I wrote him to tell him not to ignore Apple's EDUCATIONAL discounts, and also mentioned that several states offer several tax free shopping days for back to school buyers (Here, it's called Tax Free PC week, and is not limited to PCs). I speculated that the combination of discount + no taxes could result in savings of 15% or more depending on what state he lives in.

Now I'm thinking that by August the iPhone might appear in the Apple Store for Education. In addition, buying an iPhone for a student might qualify for back to school tax rebates if your state offers them.

Rather than waiting for some nebulous time when iPhone prices "come down", just wait for Apple to announce that the iPhone is being offered on the Apple Store for Education. Then go to your states website to find out when the back to school tax free shopping days will be.

Note: Teachers, students, and parents qualify for discounts at the Apple Store for Education. These discounts are available at school stores, too.

If you can hold your horses until mid-August, you might save big. Purely Speculational. Too bad that Leopard won't be available then.

How can Apple avoid all the hype generated by the media?

For years, pundits have been complaining that Apple's "we don't talk about future products" stance results in lots of buzz and free publicity. Apple responds by announcing the AppleTV and Apple iPhone six months in advance. Does this reduce the amount of buzz being generated? NOOOOOO!!!

It's the product, Stupid!

The more information Apple releases about the iPhone, the stronger the buzz reaction. Blackfriars' Marketing even publishes a daily iPhone Buzz Index. They say, "...the press is starting to sound like movie critics raving about the latest box office smash. And you know what? That's exactly the type of phenomenon we are looking at".

Like the reviewers that have actually used the iPhone, they suggest that the phone is as good as the "hype" suggests. They continue, "After all, the iPhone faces its "opening weekend" starting Friday, and we'll get our first assessment of public, not paid critic, reaction then. And just as in movies, my guess is that the public reaction will be even more positive than the critics".

I speculate that some people (myself included) expect great things from Apple, and Apple delivers. Pre-announced or un-announced makes no difference.

New Math uncovers iPhone flaw.

There's less than four days to go before the iPhone's release, and 8,000 bloggers have been frantically searching for a silver bullet that will put the iPhone out of their misery. They can all take a deep breath, and relax; because I found it.

The iPhone's 4GB memory can hold 800 songs at the default 128k encoding, and 400 songs at the new 256k "Plus" encoding. 400 songs translates to 1200 minutes or 20 hours. There are 24 hours in a day, and the iPhone's "new improved" battery can power 24 hours of audio playback. An iPod addict will run out of Tunes before the battery dies. THAT, ladies and gentlemen, is a real honest to goodness flaw! Actually, you don't even have to be an addict to listen to 24 hours of music between recharges; the 24 hours don't have to be contiguous. A user can sacrifice 3 hours of audio playback for 30 hours of standby time, and still run out of music before the battery dies.

Right!

This leaves the iPhone buyer with a conundrum: buy the 8GB iPhone in order to hold 40 hours of iTunes+, or stick to iTunes basic in order to cram 40 hours of music into the measly 4GB of the standard iPhone.

Third option: remove tongue from cheek. I'm tired of reading that the iPhones memory is too small, when I can't name many cellphones with more than 8GB.

How many friends do you have that will sit through 8GB of baby pictures? That's over 2000 pictures (I'll concede that you might have friends that will look at 2000 wallet sized porn pictures, but don't expect to find any of those friends in my contact list).

The Eagle Eyes were right.

It turns out that those who proclaimed the 12th icon in the iPhone commercials were right. It shows up in the iPhone tour as YouTube! Unfortunately for the eagle-eyed, none of them predicted that.

It's still a win for YouTube fans.

The Weakest Link?

Todays "Apple a Day" by Baltimore Sun's David Zeiler is called Apple's calculated risk: The iPhone. He presents most of the arguments of both sides of the iPhone-will-soar and iPhone-will-flop debate, before siding with the "monster success" contingent.

As I was reading it, I kept wondering what he thought the "risk" was. Using Firefox's excellent Find feature, I discovered that the word risk does not even appear in the article. The closest thing to it is "taking a risky leap into the cell phone business". I concluded that Mr. Zeiler is referring to the risk of flopping. Meanwhile I came up with a different risk, or should I say, a different "risky leap".

I'm talking about Apple's risky leap into bed with the new AT&T (I started to write "monogamous leap" or "leap into monogamy". Then I realized it's one-sided monogamy - AT&T sells other phones, too. That's beside the point). Mr. Zeiler writes that Apple is creating an almost irresistable urge to try the iPhone in all put the most technophic. Thing is, when consumers try the iPhone, they will also be trying the new AT&T. AT&T can make or break the iPhone experience.

That's a risk that comes with partnering.

Apple has historically avoided that risk by going alone and making "the whole widget". Yeah, Right! Actually, Apple's AIM partnership (Apple, IBM, Motorola) almost killed Apple, and Apple's foray in Mac OS licensing was about to drive the final nail in the coffin. Rokr, anyone? That's why many iPhone predictors expected Apple to setup it's own cellular service. These days Apple also partners with manufacturers and suppliers.

My previous posts express my belief that AT&T has the ability to make the iPhone experience all that consumers desire. They just have to execute. I predict the weakest link will be component suppliers trying to keep up with early demand.

Partnering with a vengeance!

Today's news, reported by Gregg Keiser, Computerworld, is that Sun Microsystems ZFS file system will replace Apple's HFS+ file system in Mac OS X Leopard. Is that the sound of the other shoe dropping? Last month's news was that Sun Microsystems dedicated two software engineers to work full time porting OpenOffice to the Mac. Together, that's like an Ali Shuffle followed by a one-two combination. It can't be coincidence. Purely Speculational.

The Mac's survival has always been dependent on Microsoft Office, and Apple has always been dependent on Microsoft. I speculate that Apple has never openly contributed to the OpenOffice project so as not to antagonize Microsoft. Now it appears that Apple has licensed ZFS from Sun, and in return Sun is openly contributing to an Aqua native port (carbon) of Open Office. Can you say Rope-A-Dope? Jobs and Company have moved from Partnering 101 to the Honors Course.

Sun CEO spills Apple Leopard secret
Sun Microsystems joins porting effort for OpenOffice.org for Mac

Will the iPhone ignite a Cellular Revolution or a Counter-Revolution?

An opinion piece by Blackfriars' Marketing entitled Consumers sparking a quiet revolution against US mobile carrier lockdowns comments on an article in today's Boston Globe. The contention of the Boston Globe article is that Cellular companies limit cell phone features to force users to utilize their extra cost services, and that cell phone users are going to third parties to unlock these cell phone features in what amounts to a revolt. Blackfriars' goes on to suggest that Apple has grokked this consumer sentiment; and, by generating considerable consumer interest in the iPhone, used it to force Cingular (now AT&T) into selling the iPhone unsubsidized and unlocked. It's a good argument. I don't buy it.

I believe that the relationship between Apple and AT&T is a partnership and not a confrontation. Purely speculational. On stage at All things Digital, Steve Jobs suggested that partnering is the way to go. The iPhone does not create Rokr deja vu for me. AT&T seems as excited about the iPhone as the most rabid Apple fan (that would be Steve Jobs). Apple didn't stop at AT&T. They added Google and Yahoo to the mix. Whenever people ask Mr. Jobs about 3rd party software on the iPhone, he suggests Apple is struggling to find a way to do that. I think he's already found it. Partnering.

I believe Apple and AT&T are partnering to sell both the iPhone and an unlimited service plan. That's the Revolution. Charge up front for everything, and there's no need to limit anything. Every iPhone feature will be enabled because the iPhone is designed for the AT&T network.

Instead of limiting features, Apple and AT&T have promised two years of new features and upgrades included in the price of the iPhone. Switch networks, and you'll miss out on that. By incorporating client-server like applications into the iPhone that depend on the AT&T network, a virtual lock has been created. Will another cellular network interface with Google Maps, and tell it where your iPhone is located? Probably not for free.

I'm calling it a counter-revolution. Instead of consumers unlocking the phone to break away from their cellular provider, we have a cellular provider (AT&T) selling an unsubsidized, unlocked iPhone, whose unique features are designed to lock the consumer into an unlimited service plan.

Here is a speculational metaphor. Imagine the iPhone is an iPod that plays phone calls, and AT&T is an iTunes Store with a two-year subscription plan. This plan doesn't provide songs. It provides voice and data services. Instead of an FM radio, this iPod includes a WiFi transceiver. It's a little hard to imagine because the iPhone IS an iPod that plays BOTH songs and phone calls, and it DOES have a WiFI transceiver built in. Grok it.

"Whole Widget" synergy and the iPhone.

A new series of TV commercials promoting the iPhone have appeared. The original iPhone commercial, Hello, was not very informative. The new series makes up for that. If, like me, you haven't seen the commercials on TV, you can catch them at Apple - iPhone - TV ads.

The commercial that seems to be generating the most buzz is called Calamari, and features Google Maps. It appears as though the phone knows it's own location, and supplies that information to Google Maps. Google returned a "local" Map, followed by directions to a nearby resturant. How is this possible? There are a number of ways this can be accomplished. I'd like to speculate on the most profound.

AT&T already knows where your phone is...

more or less. A significant portion of cell phone technology is devoted to cell phone tracking. The E-911 mandate requires it. The Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) utilized by AT&T provides several methods. That's geek talk. Bottom line, GPS is NOT required.

Because Apple and AT&T collaborated on the design of the iPhone, it would be trivial for AT&T to provide this information to the iPhone upon request. Because Google designed a custom Map application for the iPhone, it could be designed to use this information. Because this is the way Apple thinks about design, this should not be a surprise. I expect even more.

I've already predicted that Apple and AT&T will reinvent Cellular. Purely Speculational.

Caveat lector

Cell phone tracking is not 1 meter accurate, yet; I don't know how far along AT&T is in implementing Phase II of E-911; and the Google provided directions are not visible in the Calamari iPhone ad. There is still room for more speculation.

No sources have been bribed to provide the speculations in this blog.

On doubting the iPhone and making the wrong comparisons

David Chartier posted On doubting the iPhone and making the wrong comparisons today at the Unofficial Apple Weblog. He talks about the Register's Lance Davis and his article
Why Apple won't sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. Making the wrong comparisons refers to comparing a business smartphone based on Windows Mobile to a consumer smartphone based on the Mac OS.

What shattered my funny bone was the ensuing comment by Microsoft hater Jeremy W, number 7 when I looked. Jeremy attempts to play The dozens on Microsoft, and botches it with the following:

"The skunkworkers at MS produced another stinko set of commands that are far too complicated and too filled with meaningless complications (called within MS: "features")."

"If MS designed an airplane, it would have two tails. (The extra one would be an added feature!)"

In case you don't know, "Skunk works is a term used in engineering and technical fields to describe a group within an organization given a high degree of autonomy and unhampered by bureaucracy, tasked with working on advanced or secret projects". Skunk Works is an official alias for Lockheed Martin's Advanced Development Programs.

Lockheed's Skunk Works

"The Skunk Works was founded at Burbank, California when Lockheed was tasked with building a high speed, highly maneuverable fighter to compete with the aircraft coming out of the Messerschmitt factory. Lockheed Model 22 rolled out in December 1938 and had her maiden flight on January 27, 1939. This plane would later be known as the P-38, and would be one of the most successful aircraft in the U.S. military for its time."

You guessed it. Lockheed's P-38 had two tails!.

Other famous airplanes coming out of the Skunk Works include the Sr-71 Blackbird (spy plane), The F-14 Tomcat (Top Gun), the F-117 Nighthawk (the stealth fighter), and the F-22 Raptor. The newest is the F-35 Lightning II (Joint Strike Fighter).

Yeah. They all have two tails.

Kinda like:

"Your mother wears combat boots".

"How'd you know she's in Iraq?"

Do your research!

Will iPod Development enter a new phase?

The following is (almost) purely speculational.

Considering all the hype spinning around the new Apple iPhone, I find it interesting that no one is discussing it's most spectacular feature combo. It's not news that the iPhone's foundation is the Mac OS; neither is it news that the iPhone is an iPod. Question: Could this mean that future iPods will be based on the Mac OS?

It's probably true that most iPod users don't know, and don't care, about the OS inside their iPod. "It just works!", is probably enough for them. On the other hand, for those of you wondering what's next for the iPod, an iPod running the Mac OS should boggle the mind. Today's Apple rumor is that an iPhone Development Kit (SDK) will be previewed or released at Apple's World Wide Developer's Conference (WWDC) in two weeks. If next generation iPods are based on the Mac OS, then the iPhone SDK could also be an iPod SDK!

While Apple is (rightly?) concerned that third party applications could compromise the security of an iPhone, they probably have fewer concerns about the iPod. A Chinese iPod manufacturer has already demonstrated that an iPod can be used to spread Windows based viruses; Apple will need to use some caution, but not much. It's not as if the iPod has the Zune-like capability to transmit viruses wirelessly to every other iPod it meets on the street. Truth: I don't know if the Zune can do that either; that's purely speculational! Actually, my understanding is that MicroSoft's Digital Rights Management (DRM) won't let your Zune upload files received "socially" onto your PC. Kudo for that, Microsoft.

I imagine that the first fruits of an iPod SDK will be games. I also imagine that an iPod SDK could create an industry comparable to the rest of the iPod accessory market.

Release the hounds!