Will the iPhone ignite a Cellular Revolution or a Counter-Revolution?

An opinion piece by Blackfriars' Marketing entitled Consumers sparking a quiet revolution against US mobile carrier lockdowns comments on an article in today's Boston Globe. The contention of the Boston Globe article is that Cellular companies limit cell phone features to force users to utilize their extra cost services, and that cell phone users are going to third parties to unlock these cell phone features in what amounts to a revolt. Blackfriars' goes on to suggest that Apple has grokked this consumer sentiment; and, by generating considerable consumer interest in the iPhone, used it to force Cingular (now AT&T) into selling the iPhone unsubsidized and unlocked. It's a good argument. I don't buy it.

I believe that the relationship between Apple and AT&T is a partnership and not a confrontation. Purely speculational. On stage at All things Digital, Steve Jobs suggested that partnering is the way to go. The iPhone does not create Rokr deja vu for me. AT&T seems as excited about the iPhone as the most rabid Apple fan (that would be Steve Jobs). Apple didn't stop at AT&T. They added Google and Yahoo to the mix. Whenever people ask Mr. Jobs about 3rd party software on the iPhone, he suggests Apple is struggling to find a way to do that. I think he's already found it. Partnering.

I believe Apple and AT&T are partnering to sell both the iPhone and an unlimited service plan. That's the Revolution. Charge up front for everything, and there's no need to limit anything. Every iPhone feature will be enabled because the iPhone is designed for the AT&T network.

Instead of limiting features, Apple and AT&T have promised two years of new features and upgrades included in the price of the iPhone. Switch networks, and you'll miss out on that. By incorporating client-server like applications into the iPhone that depend on the AT&T network, a virtual lock has been created. Will another cellular network interface with Google Maps, and tell it where your iPhone is located? Probably not for free.

I'm calling it a counter-revolution. Instead of consumers unlocking the phone to break away from their cellular provider, we have a cellular provider (AT&T) selling an unsubsidized, unlocked iPhone, whose unique features are designed to lock the consumer into an unlimited service plan.

Here is a speculational metaphor. Imagine the iPhone is an iPod that plays phone calls, and AT&T is an iTunes Store with a two-year subscription plan. This plan doesn't provide songs. It provides voice and data services. Instead of an FM radio, this iPod includes a WiFi transceiver. It's a little hard to imagine because the iPhone IS an iPod that plays BOTH songs and phone calls, and it DOES have a WiFI transceiver built in. Grok it.